INSIDEFX

AUDUSD. Bears step aside...The Bulls are coming

Long
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
After creating a new low just below daily resistance price was whipped back up suggesting manipulation and has rallied; breaking back above the moving average, retesting them as support and continuing to break through our downtrend in line with the moving average crossover to the upside.This suggests that price is definitely going higher to test highs around 0.7440. Given the three pin formation that we seem to be forming on the weekly time frame I can even see price pushing to 0.7500.
Take note of the shooting star rejection from 0.74250 resistance on the last candle. This does suggest some hesitation to the upside, however this did in fact break our previous high and has closed above the 78.6% retracement of our H4 fib invalidating the downside Fibonacci scenario. There is still a daily downside Fibonacci which price has spiked through the 78.6%. Should this hold there is a slight chance of downside but overall it's likely that Aussie has had its fun rolling down the hill and is now time for the bulls to show face. Today's daily closure will be important..We'll keep you guys updated as always!
Remember that this week is an important week for the Dollar in terms of Fundamentals with Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. While we avoid analysing fundamentals as such this could provide the volatility needed to initiate that upside momentum past prior highs.
Comment: Price came within a couple of pips of our proposed stop loss level and quickly reversed with a bullish engulfing which leaves price resting on moving average support once again. The 0.7400 level is currently providing sufficient resistance to hold price down but I can still see the original scenario playing out. NFP tomorrow so lets see what happens!
Comment: NFP came and went with a very little increase in volatility- the markets largely didn't know how to respond. Nonetheless, price spiked through our first target region called at 0.7440 and is currently resting on 0.7425 support. 0.7460 still seems like a good overall target but we may first see a small retracement down to 0.7410

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