Aussie Long Setup - Consolidation Ready to break?!

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
On the weekly timeframe , we've seen 5 downside wicks as orders have been filled at the 0.7350 support region. This week forms the 6th rejection of this and price already appears to be pulling back from here. Overall we have a weekly downtrend which lines up the downside Fibonacci retracement region with 0.7500.
Price moved largely bullish yesterday breaking back above moving average support. The moving averages have failed to crossover to the downside suggesting a bullish sentiment but for now they remain flat as price continues to fail at 0.7425 weekly resistance as the top of the consolidation range. The prior candle closed beyond the daily downtrend with the current candle already spiking through resistance. This candle has returned for a retest of the trendline break and is currently supported by the moving averages. I expect upside movements from this region to the 0.7460 region.
On the H4 timeframe price bounced off daily support and spiked through the 200ema in line with another test of the 0.7425 supply zone . Although we saw a heavy sell off from this region this actually broke prior highs confirming the reversal after the higher low formed yesterday. As price currently retests the daily downtrend moving averages are providing support. CPI data released this morning was largely flat so I believe downside moves are short lived. Price should now revisit 0.7425 before extending to 0.7470.


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