All Bearish Targets Hit ... Momental Channels | $AUD $NZD #RBNZ

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Last Wednesday, June 04th, I released two bearish targets, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 1.08986 - 04 JUN 14


2 - TG-2 = 1.08521.
(Source: )

Both of these bearish targets got hit with great precision as of this hour (see M14 timeframe for a closer look of the price action relative to these two bearish targets here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/gHvDqGPM).

A third target, standing at the antipod of these recent two hits, was also defined last week on that same day. That bullish target remains defined as:

TG-1 = 1.11619 - 04 JUN 14.

While price did escape its standard channel, part of this demonstration I discussed about last time within the analysis was the use of momental lines/channels, in contrast to standard price channels.


A closer look at the price action will define a close correlation between candle anatomy (wick and body) relative to these channels. For instance, the long bearish candle was born out of a split between two candles. That prior candle was itself coming out of a consolidation of candles whose wicks/bodies were clearly transected by these momental channels.

In any case, the idea here is that technical analysis contains layers upon layers of occult geometries that are based on static (highs/lows point definition) as well as other hidden geometries defined by dynamic price action. Indeed, the momental lines are merely measuring the momentum of the price action, with one essential distinction: While standard price channels (included in this group all pitchforks , such as Schiff, modified Schiff and inside pitchforks ) "live" along a short price action, momental lines retain the ability to define price S/R across the entire life of the chart and across any timeframes. In essence, momental lines have a fractal property that is just as distinct as Elliott Waves and geometric patterns.

While these momental lines remain unshared in their construction, the neat property of TradingView charts is that you are able to acquire the chart I built and move any elements around. This means that you can move these momental lines around and use them to follow price as it evolves.

At this point, I will keep the directional bias as "Neutral" while price consolidates.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

Twitter: @4xForecaster


16 JUN 2014 - Update:

Just tweeted:

"$AUDNZD ... @recluse82: First 2 targets hit, now expecting lofty @ 1.11619; COT data is favorable - via @UnknownUnicorn305"


"@recluse82 @UnknownUnicorn305: Expect 108071/107792 to represent entrenched bulls; if fails, then bears win; if holds, then TG-1 @ 1.11619 favored"


"COT data: AUD Bullish bias; Long: 2,648 (+653) = Increasing NZD Bullish bias; Long: 1,437 (-41) = Neutral = Net AUD bulllish"


"Note: Data is CFTC's COT dating 10 JUNE 2014. Numbers in parentheses are incr./decr. in traders' position week-over-week - David."

In essence, following both target hits, I expect the predictive model to continue to hold, so as to reverse to the upside and hit the third target up above.

The CFTC's COT data which was released Friday (several days after the predictive model defined all three targets and finally hit 2 out of three so far) does point to a bullish strengthening in the AUD against a neutral-to-bearish positioning in the NZD.

The net directional bias would favor and support the predictive model's targets.

+1 Reply
Hi Doc.....nicely done here. What say you on further Bearish action, with TP down at 1.05680? Cheers.....
+1 Reply
Hi, @BBFX - Yes, an EAGLE is definitely a possibility down there - David
Der mr4xforecaster thank you for analysis
+1 Reply
11 JUN 2014 - Addendum: A Closer View Of The Chart At M15 Level:

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
I hope that enerything goes ok for you
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