scorpiousg
Long

Potential 2618 on AUD/CHF 15 minute Chart

FOREXCOM:AUDCHF   Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc
I'm looking at a triple bottom on AUD/ 15 minute chart, providing a potential 2618 opportunity.

If price action can come into the area of the 161.8% inversion of the third bottom (an extension can also be used from the mid leg of the triple bottom to determine the 161.8%), this will provide a potential 2618 buying opportunity.

Entry will be between the 61.8 and 76.4% retracement.
My targets will be at previous structure highs at around 7719.
Stops will be below the lows of the right most leg of the triple bottom. I'm using EMA ATR stops which on the 15 minute is about 5 pips below the low... ie 7679

The triple bottom is coming off a Bullish Cypher pattern completion on the 1 hour chart, so I'm assessing this in conjunction with my previous Bearish Cypher analysis, which hasn't been invalidated yet though it's looking quite messy now (link below). That is to say, I anticipate that price action off the 2618/Bullish Cypher has the potential to reach 7752 to complete the previously identified Bearish Cypher or at least establish a decision point at that level.

PS: I've been noticing something with harmonic patterns which I am trying to confirm via back testing and I would appreciate some input on this, as to if it is a valid observation -
I've been noticing that (and this instance is a good example) with harmonic patterns (Bats, Gartleys, Cyphers...), on completion, and prior to the anticipated move, will tend to double top (or bottom)/retest the completion levels before moving in the expected direction (long or short-when the market chooses to be in agreement with your analysis).
Has anyone else observed this? Is this a common place occurrence/observation?
I've started waiting for these retests after pattern completion as confirmations before entry.
Aug 08
Trade closed: target reached: And target HIT!
Chalk one up for my awesome teachers.
Put me through the wringer this one but we trusted the analysis, held out and it paid off.
One to the next one!
Aug 08
Trade closed: target reached:
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