AUDCAD(30MIN) - theory of curves trade

FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
This is a long position and it's a bit late for entry. It's worth watching though because of the 'theory of curves', for experience.

TOC trades are difficult and are trend following. There are no preset targets and stop-losses are difficult to define. Losses can be heavy but gains can be well in excess of 'harmonic-type' trades. Exiting this sort of trade is tricky if going long because sometimes there may be a spike down through the curve and then price takes off. This is also the reason why stop-losses need to be bigger than expected. (Can't afford the loss = stay out)

Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.

Comment: I've bailed out of a long position on this with a small profit. I bailed out for three reasons:
1 - Price has fallen out of the curve and appears to be struggling.
2- Looking higher to the 6H time frame AUDCAD is at a high point after major pumps north.
3 - FOMO is what tempts me to stay in. That's wrong.

The market could well move north and make me feel stupid. But I'm in profit, so I don't need to feel stupid. What would be stupid is staying in and suffering a loss.
Comment: I'm happy with the outcome of my trade.
I share all this experience for the educational benefit of others. The issues are about
1 - sticking with your strategy
2 - knowing when to get out based on your assessment.
3 - avoiding hindsight bias.
4 - not chasing the market.
5 - not losing money - a zero loss or small gain is a win, in this business.
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus ]


nice analysis!
+2 Reply
Great analysis.
+1 Reply
Thanks for the detained analysis
thanks for sharing
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