2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Triangle Phinance II
As of writing, the April low, i.e. 6425 (BITFINEX) must not be exceeded for the following analysis to remain valid…
The contracting symmetrical triangle, which has been forming in the Bitcoin market since 06-FEB-2018, appears to have now completed four of its five waves.
Five waves are expected in a contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves.
Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio.
Thus far, waves a-b-c-d have of all unfolded adhering to the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio in relation to each other, and the fifth and final wave-e rally now ought to be underway:
i.imgur.com/exQNGkh.png
—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.
—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.
—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological 10,000 level.
—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 33% from 05-MAY to 10-JUN. In regards to length, wave-d equals a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-b. The April low, i.e. 6425 (BITFINEX) must not be exceeded for the contracting symmetrical triangle to remain valid.
—wave-e: The final rally leg of the contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, and the shortest, now ought to be underway. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around 8822 (BITFINEX). It is common for this final wave-e of a symmetrical triangle to either undershoot or overshoot. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall symmetrical triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of 9990 (BITFINEX) —the psychological 10,000 level. Given the converging trendlines of the triangle, it appears the final wave-e rally leg of the triangle may undershoot its target; hence, additional targets (BITFINEX):
@8305: wave-e retraces Fibonacci 50% of wave-d.
@8707: wave-e retraces Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-d.
Once the symmetrical triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility. Initial expectation is towards 4257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
Notes:
—13-JUN: CBOE XBT expiration.
—16-JUN: 100 days since price last traded at the psychological 10,000 level.
—29-JUN: CME Bitcoin futures last trade.
Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:
BTC (4hr): i.imgur.com/PXyHFNR.png
BTC (Weekly): i.imgur.com/P4ASfTd.png
BTC (Daily): i.imgur.com/eplQwbK.png
As of writing, the April low, i.e. 6425 (BITFINEX) must not be exceeded for the following analysis to remain valid…
The contracting symmetrical triangle, which has been forming in the Bitcoin market since 06-FEB-2018, appears to have now completed four of its five waves.
Five waves are expected in a contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves.
Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio.
Thus far, waves a-b-c-d have of all unfolded adhering to the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio in relation to each other, and the fifth and final wave-e rally now ought to be underway:
i.imgur.com/exQNGkh.png
—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.
—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.
—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological 10,000 level.
—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 33% from 05-MAY to 10-JUN. In regards to length, wave-d equals a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-b. The April low, i.e. 6425 (BITFINEX) must not be exceeded for the contracting symmetrical triangle to remain valid.
—wave-e: The final rally leg of the contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, and the shortest, now ought to be underway. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around 8822 (BITFINEX). It is common for this final wave-e of a symmetrical triangle to either undershoot or overshoot. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall symmetrical triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of 9990 (BITFINEX) —the psychological 10,000 level. Given the converging trendlines of the triangle, it appears the final wave-e rally leg of the triangle may undershoot its target; hence, additional targets (BITFINEX):
@8305: wave-e retraces Fibonacci 50% of wave-d.
@8707: wave-e retraces Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-d.
Once the symmetrical triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility. Initial expectation is towards 4257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
Notes:
—13-JUN: CBOE XBT expiration.
—16-JUN: 100 days since price last traded at the psychological 10,000 level.
—29-JUN: CME Bitcoin futures last trade.
Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:
BTC (4hr): i.imgur.com/PXyHFNR.png
BTC (Weekly): i.imgur.com/P4ASfTd.png
BTC (Daily): i.imgur.com/eplQwbK.png