I am updating how we are progressing on the post I shared on 4th of FEB So far the action is normal compared to historical precedents. Read the linked post. My anticipation is that we can go another 3% lower from here. I wil use this signpost as a map for the year unless we start getting large deviation from it.
What can help us guide forward expectations? According to the Whaley Breadth Thrust Signal there is Normal and Abnormal action FIRST 6 WEEKS (end Feb) - 3-5% pullbacks would be normal FIRST 12 WEEKS (end Jul) - Forward Gains are approximate 12% - 5-6% pullback would be normal 6 MONTHS Forward - Forward Gains are approx +17% I HAVE MADE THE WHALEY...
WHAT IT IS A Golden Cross occurs when the 50ma crosses over the 200ma. Having the 50ma above the 200ma is commonly considered a bullish market condition – and generally it is. Before we have looked at SPX Golden Crosses dating all the way back to 12/31/1928. BY THE NUMBERS How does the GOLDEN CROSS Compare against Buy&Hold from 1928 to 2023 👉 Golden Cross...
Constructive setup of a Cup with Handle 98/100 Relative Strength Sep22 - Dec 22 - Massive increase in Institutional Ownership (+370 new Funds /40%/)
I spoke about this 2 months ago in DEC22 The position of the $VIX under 20 is a key milestone for the bullish market. Since 22 this has been an indication of key reversals - hence if: – This correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low – Market acts bullish on today's FED communication We might have something to work on.
This is what we want to see from stocks and this is what real alpha looks like. I want to see more and more names act like this one
PFGC had a nice breakout on 26JAN Adding it to my watchlist this week
JANUARY HAS A PROVEN PREDICTIVE POWER FOR THE END OF THE YEAR WHY THIS MATTERS This indicator has been 90% correct since 1950. It is used on the SP500. BY THE NUMBERS The January Trifecta (def below) has occured 31 years since 1950. 28 of them we have followed with positive year for SP Average gain during January Trifecta is +17% If January...
While the general market indexes has been unconstructive (top chart) the stocks underneath the service are improving (bottom chart). In this case we are looking at the stocks in the SP500 that are above their 200D MA (Picture is similar for the Nasdaq) - this is a bullish indicator and the reason why I am starting to dip toe in the water. Remember this is was...
I have covered this in my education blog, but here is a great example of a Climax Run Stock Checklist ✅ Price looks almost vertical ❌ Run occurs after at least 18 weeks of the first base. (This run is 5 weeks after first base) ✅ Rapid advancement +180% ✅ Last 8 days before drop was 7 out of 8 days up ✅ Last 2 trading days we saw the largest trading range ❌...
On Thrusday an important momentum thrust indicator gave a buy signal with NYSE advancing stocks leading declining stocks by better than 1.91 to 1 over the last 10 trading sessions. The Thrust has been backtested by NDR (Ned Davis) and we can see very impressive statistics. I have developed an indicator for this and it is available in my profile. Here is the link too:
Moving stop-loss to break-even to CAT. Currently up +7%
I posted the entry on 1st of January. 2 weeks later I am posting an exit to the trade idea Click below to see the entry post as evidence
In 2022 we witnessed the fastest tightening cycle ever made by the FED. As I have covered before in the beginning of 2022 - the speed of the tightening (no so much the aboslute value) are key in how the general market indexes are going to act. The faster the speed the more pressure the market will see while trying to make a move higher - hence the more bearish the...
2023 WATCHLIST A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023 Here is a new issue from the Biomed Industry. Relative Strength (IBD): 97 IPO: 2007 Sales acceleration: Jun-22: 12% Sep-22: 80% Funds acceleration: Jun-22: 708 Sep-22: 743
2023 WATCHLIST A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023 Here is a new issue from the Semiconductor Industry. Relative Strength (IBD): 95 IPO: 2000 Sales acceleration: Jun-22: 50% Sep-22: 30% Funds acceleration: Jun-22: 499 Sep-22: 496
2023 WATCHLIST A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023 Here is a new issue from the Computer Hardware Industry. Relative Strength (IBD): 99 IPO: 2007 Sales acceleration: Jun-22: 53% Sep-22: 79% Funds acceleration: Jun-22: 385 Sep-22: 421
2023 WATCHLIST A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023 Here is a new issue from the Beverages Industry. Relative Strength (IBD): 97 IPO: 2022 Sales acceleration: Jun-22: 137% Sep-22: 98% Funds acceleration: Jun-22: 414 Sep-22: 484