We can go long on a break of the all time high here, risking a drop to 4853.8, and targetting 5050.2 by or before November 25th.
Upside is more likely, as the title says, but, in case of a breakdown, pay attention to VIX and the key levels below for a long from support.
I'll update the publication after NFP is out.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
When looking at the daily bollinger bands width (bbw) there have only been four other times where the bb were as tight as they are now. Years 1964 & 1965 and year 1995 before the huge breakout into the year 2000 high In all of the previous times the S&P500 was in a small pullback then rallied 5%-6% which I believe it could do again. I believe buying the dip is...
With 3 DTE in this post-Brexit troubled setup, I'm covering the put side for near worthless (for a .10/$10 debit).
I have proceeded to roll out the short call side "as is" to the September monthly expiry (for a 2.18 ($218)/contract debit), but decided to wait a bit to sell a short put side against for a credit that exceeds the cost of the roll to see if we get...
With VIX finishing the week quite a bit below 15, I'm probably going to pass on the 45 DTE index iron condor I ordinarily put on in RUT, SPX, or NDX and look elsewhere for my premium selling plays; this usually means: either (a) look at earnings plays or an exchange traded fund in which volatility is high; (b) do a long volatility play (such as the VIX "Super...
Rolling up the put side yet again (I've basically rolled the thing into an "iron butterfly" (filled for a .90 credit ($90)) to defend the call side.
I generally don't like to "invert" condors (here, roll the put side beyond the call side), so I'll probably just leave the setup alone running into expiry, but keep an eye on the setup's net delta and make a decision...
... for a $137 credit to defend my breached call side.
This thing is starting to morph into an "iron fly" ... . I will naturally need price to move significantly back toward my call side strikes before expiry to not have to roll the call side out for duration/strike improvement. Nature of the beast ....
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 63%
P50: 74%
Max Profit: $830/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $1670/contract
Theta: $16/contract
Delta: -1.69/contract
Notes: $820/contract was the mid price pre-market; as usual with these large instruments, you have to do a little "price discovery." Will look to take it off at 50% max ... .
The $NDX weekly with HA candles looks very nice. It looks like we might see the turn around the end of April. That is provided the resistance holds. Lets see.
Expect NAS100/NDX to break highs and break down. Corporate buybacks enter blackout period but early shorts must be punished and removed from the gravy train. Enter between 4437 and 4449, stop on close past 4462. Move to break even early after a momentum candle down.
A little engagement trade here to keep me occupied in this sideways market ... .
Filled for a 7.05 credit ($705/contract). I'll look to take it off at something like 25% max profit or at about $176/contract.
Another thing I'm going to do while waiting for volatility to return in the broader markets such that it makes sense to set up plays 45 days out is go short duration. While I'm not going to put this particular trade on because I have a short duration RUT/IUX iron condor that I rolled out to next week standing in as this week's short duration play (see Post...
