Oil strongly resists to go down despite ongoing physical oil oversupply. Many would think that 63 resistance will not be broken and it's safe to short at this level. The market will fool you on that. From EW structure we see that the main A-B-C zigzag is not yet completed and what could be taken for a beginning of a downward impulse during Feb 18-22 was in fact...
CL is stil range bound and now has formed a small ascending wedge. This si on our watch list. CL could break for a nice move soon.
Could comeback to test the top of the channel where there might be further clues as to UKOIL's intentions. Targets are top of the cloud on the daily chart, the 100DMA, & for the long tun the 200DMA USOIL appears to be slightly less perky still trapped in its triangle consolidation pattern for now and overbought. Will be interesting to see how they both play out...
Gasoline has seen a crazy rally in the first six weeks of 2015, after a record number of daily declines; but, considering the continued oversupply in both crude and gasoline inventories, RBOB could look to pullback. No longer in an oversold condition on the daily chart, gas has been unable to close above $1.6192, as well as a minor descending trend line. So far,...
CL is range bound for now and could go sideways for a few week. We are still trading inside the monthly trend line and we will favor the upside for now. Watch more CL commentary: youtu.be
There's a strong support for oil at $37.72 and I believe that will be the bottom in the coming months. It is only bouncing given the extreme oversold condition and that does not change the fundamental fact of an over supplied oil market and many more that are stored in offshore tankers. I highly doubt the long term log trend in black will hold. (Temporary bottom...
This is the comparison of reversed Brent price dynamics vs Russian Rouble starting from Feb-2014 (CAD is provided for reference). As it can be seen Russian Rouble rate mostly followed oil prices. However starting from December RUB rate was artificially adjusted. Now it seems it's time for readjustment.
CL played out very well for us. Price moved back into our zone and triggered a long (a small position). We have covered into this spike. We will look for pullbacks to establish a new position. We will post another chart with areas of interest. Stay tuned.
I haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher. My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to...
WTI has played out fundamentally, and the fundamentals (along with sentiment) still remain to the downside. Traders love to pick out bottoms by catching falling knifes, and they're usually cut up in the process. On a risk:reward basis, sure WTI may seem like it's at a nice area to buy. Yet, I think it is still to early. Crude will likely find support at the...
In my previous analysis "Que 2008," I likened this drop in oil similar to the one we've seen in 2008. This was based on both over leverage in the oil and equity markets, diverging fundamentals and a strengthening dollar throughout 2009 - which brought on deflation. Prices did collapse through $60 as expected, and nobody is willing to cut production to reserve...
I've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term trendline for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their trendlines (around $47 for WTI and...
Hello Everyone, After a long period of Consolidation in a Symmetrical Triangle, The Crude finally broke out to the downside and did a major drop. So big that it worried a lot of countries feeding on the black gold. Nowadays it feels like people are no longer fan on commodities. They'd prefer more of the greenbacks than golden back-and-fronts. As you see...
Hello guys, After the recent break of crude oil out of a really lengthy consolidation phase (Triangle), as anticipated we're seeing lower lows ever since. This trending environment makes every Elliott Wave trader happier than any other time. In the previous 14 days we've been sitting in the retracement of the recent down-move. We're heading towards a sweet...
We are short...and taking heat. Our targets are posted. 92.50 (continuous contract) is acting as the line in the sand.
We are out! We took a small lose on crude based on a bullish pattern. The dollar is in charge and we are not fighting the fed...so we will revisit later. NEXT!
Too bad I do not have h1 data, as usually I will try to vizualize my setup in h1. currently there is a bear flag channel forming and close to completion. Upon break I will look to short, target till ~100 round number, give and take. Just a primitive play , trend folowing but still utilizing my usual setup to get in. I also have macd divergence on the h1 as one of...
This week we will see the EMA (50,100,200) and MACD,RSI for various diagrams. The UKOIL 4H technical analysis training diagram shows the following: UKOIL reacted last week towards to EMA 50. MACD has a bullish divergence and RSI is trying bullish. The Market generally is bearish. EMA 50 is under EMA 100 that is under EMA 200. Long for EMA 50. Watch the...