Reasons for entry :
- two big FR 23.6 and 38.2
- Strong structure
Stop loss :
- Below previous swing low (HL)
Take profit :
- 127.2% FE of the move
- ABCD pattern complete at the same level
- Major strong structure
If 579 holds I can see 3 waves up to 595 to touch the trend line then a sharp drop to 566/567 followed by a big move to the upside.
***Please note. After looking at other fractal patterns in the the charts I think we'll re-test 600-610 but will break down afterwards. Please see my latest chart. ***
USDCAD completed the bullish bat, ABCD and came to test the weekly TL (orange). Reversed, punched through 23.6 on the way to hit T1 @38.2 (1.087).
Good structure res. @T1 with possible rally to T2 @1.10. Still hypothetical bearish shark could become realistic if and when PA breaks the 1.105 level. completing @1.12 for a short
After Kiwi has been hammered into ground a ret. should occur upon ABCD completion. Again, the PA came so close to 161.8 that I may regard as being reached. This 161.8ext "the golden ratio" should hold and let the PA recover to 38.2 ret.
This long should provide some 114 green pips :)
Let me start of by saying that symmetry in Harmonic Patterns is not a requirement. It's simply fuel to the fire. It's all the more reason to believe that it'll successfully play out.
The strongest patterns bounce off convoluted areas of harmonic ratios. In this example, not only do we have the Bat formation, but also an AB=CD within the Bat's CD leg. This could...
This is a trade I will not be taking if it doesn't meet the test of time.
After taking the time to reread Carney's books, he mentioned with emphasis the use of time in regards to harmonic completions.
From Carney himself:
"Although time considerations are not as significant as the factors of price, an understanding of when a setup should complete can optimize...
Time, Price,Pattern and momentum all indicate that the market is ready to go up, I think we by a trigger in the lower time frame we can enter to the market
I've noticed the price of gas has been declining for about three to four weeks. Come to see, Oil has been in a free fall for a month now. From the bottom in mid-April to the high in late-June, the 61.8% provided a technical level that prices could bounce off of. Even when the harmonic patterns aren't evident, the harmonic ratios are always close by dictating...
As you can see with the yellow, dimly-shadowed, Bearish Cypher, it took prices some time to finally turn to the downside. Although going short would of been a successful short-term trade, the outlook is still bullish.
The current Bullish Cypher, the green one, is iffy. The top portion that hit the former resistance just barely missed the minimum 1.13 extension,...
To put things in perspective, the Daily chart is showing a descending triangle formation.
If volume comes into play as expected, prices should rally towards the trendline around 131.00.
That would essentially put the bearish Shark pattern in play.
Back in Mid-March, Gold sold off heavily around 133.00/133.50, leaving me all the more confident a retest will, at...
I see that we've recently completed a short-term AB=CD pattern. It was actually structured extremely well, with price reacting to the Golden Ratios beautifully.
What intrigued me, however, was how the Volume played a factor, at least retrospectively.
I didn't point this out on my chart but here's how:
From the bottom of A up towards to B, high volumes produced...
I am short on this pair, as it made a new lower high with almost an overbought condition on the RSI and the RSI showing divergence from previous high.
Target is the 127.2 extension and stops above previous high. At the target point, there will be an AB=CD pattern completed, so a good opportunity to go long there, but I would wait for price reaction on that zone...
AB=CD in confluence with 1.272 extension and near the 61.8 retracement from last major swing.
If price goes a little lower from where it is right now, this might change, I will try to update it to find the best spot to enter the market.
Well the chart is very clear, and the mechanical progress of SP500 has proven itself for the last 4 years. Therefore before the end of the tappering process, we may very much be faced with such a scenario. To be confirmed of course.
In addition to already published Trade Idea, this chart is to draw the attention of people for trade opportunity which will give the smallest risk for big reward. Stops @ 138.45 will do to know we are wrong....so trade accordingly & have fun.
